That is the primary question that everyone seems to have at the moment and it sure is tough to get any kind of read. We see the economic numbers that come out and they are the most confusing thing of all. Every time we get a good number we hear that the market can't keep that up and we sell off and every time we get a bad number, the take is we have to improve and so the market rallies. We are at the top end of the range that we have seen so far in '08 and sadly I believe we are going to continue to use those words for a while: The trading range of 2008. Looking at the accompanying chart it is clear that 1394 is a level that we just cannot seem to break convincingly on the emini S&P futures.

We see this happen again today (Thursday) on a day where it looks like the market is lined up to continue a big rally. The market action I have seen leads me to believe that we are going to be in a tight range for the first 6 months of '08 and we continue to bounce off of 1394 on the upside and 1250 on the downside. If we are to break out to the upside it is going to have to happen over the next few weeks, be it from MSFT earnings or the Fed meeting next week. If this fails yet again, I believe we will go right back to the 1300 level. The product to watch in conjunction with this is the VIX. We cannot get the VIX to close under 20 and unless we see these things happen in unison, we are not going to see the market continue in to a bullish pattern. The greatest part of all this of course is that we will all stay tuned and see how it turns out.