I am writing this Friday morning after the release of the latest employment data and it has negated the gains we were seeing earlier this morning. If this market could talk it would say just give me anything positive, I want to continue this Rally! Unfortunately, the quarter of a million jobs lost this quarter is probably the tip of the iceberg. I still believe we will end up holding most of this week's nice gains, but the outlook for the next couple months scares me.

Past housing corrections and "recessions" (can we just say it) have lasted much longer and the losses were much deeper than what we have seen so far.

The market pundits, realtors and retailers all tell us we may have formed a bottom. I am not so sure. If the past is any indication, we definitely have more to go. In the past 3 recessions job losses lasted almost a year before we turned around and saw growth. The inventories of homes in the "hottest" markets is staggering. I read the current inventories in Florida will take 10 years to sell at this sales rate. As we have said earlier, it just requires us to shorten our time frame on trades and be nimble. In this case milk the rally until it turns over, sometime around 1390 in SPX and wait for the next opportunity.

Steve Quirk

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